2008 Football picks

AFC Division winners: New England, Jacksonville, San Diego, Pittsburgh
AFC Wild Cards: Indianapolis, Buffalo

Round 1: San Diego over Buffalo.  Pittsburgh over Indianapolis.
Round 2: Jacksonville over San Diego.  New England over Pittsburgh.
Round 3: New England over Jacksonville.

NFC Division winners: Dallas, Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona
NFC Wild Cards: New York, Tampa Bay

Round 1: Carolina over Tampa Bay.  New York over Arizona.
Round 2: New York over Dallas.  Carolina over Minnesota.
Round 3: Carolina over New York.

Super Bowl: New England over Carolina.

Playoff Predictions

I'll just use this as an opportunity to brag one more time about my predictions last year, when I was 100% correct about every playoff game from the start.  Of course there's all sorts of cliches that can be invoked here, but I guess basically if you throw enough darts you'll hit a bullseye eventually.  So probability would say that most of my picks will be wrong this year.

I'll start with my team.  On paper, the Redskins don't look like they'll beat Seattle.  I don't think we match up well against them.  We've won the last few weeks by controlling the clock, stopping the run, and avoiding big plays when we're on defense.  We've stopped some great running teams (Minnesota, New York, Dallas).  And our two corners have been playing the best football of their careers, so we have no problem stopping one or two good receivers.  But when we play a team that doesn’t run a lot anyway, and with depth at receiver, like Seattle or Green Bay, I think we might be in trouble.

Still, despite all that, the Redskins have been playing out of their minds recently, and I just have a real good feeling that we've got one more win in us.  I just don't know if we have two.

Last year I got my predictions right by picking the teams that no one else was picking.  So I'm going against the grain with I think three out of the four wild card matchups.  Everyone's picking the Giants and Jaguars.  But the Steelers and Buccaneers didn't get into the playoffs by being pushovers.  The Steelers know how to win.  And the Giants know how to lose.

I'm pretty confident about my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, I'm just not totally sure about the road leading up to it.  The Packers will be making the Super Bowl, but I can't figure out if it will be the Redskins or the Cowboys that they'll be beating in the championship game.  The Bucs/Giants game could really go either way, but I don't see either of them getting any further.  (The Giants played well in one game, but still lost.  Why is everyone on their bandwagon all of a sudden?)

I'm not as confident in the AFC.  My pick is the Colts, mainly because my pick was the Colts from the preseason and I'm standing by it.  But I'm not so sure they can beat the Chargers to even get to the championship, let alone the Patriots IN the championship.  Another popular pick is the Jaguars to knock off the Patriots.  I don't see it.  The Patriots are the best team ever, why would anyone think they will lose just because they're playing a team that matches up well against them?  They beat everyone!  If anyone can beat New England, it's the Colts.  Because they're the only team that has a decent record against them in the past few years.

So get out your betting cards.  My picks are the following:

Tampa Bay over New York
Washington over Seattle
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
San Diego over Tennessee

Green Bay over Tampa Bay
Washington over Dallas
Indianapolis over San Diego
New England over Pittsburgh

Green Bay over Washington
Indianapolis over New England

And the Peyton Mannings to beat the Brett Favres in a Super Bowl filled with fantastic headlines.

The second tier

I'm getting pretty concerned about the Redskins and their playoff chances.

Maybe I'm the only one?

Because after 5 games, they are sitting at the bottom of the "second tier" of teams that are playoff worthy.

The good news is that they don't play in the AFC, where there are certainly two, and maybe three teams in the "top tier". There's only one team that anyone would say is in the top tier right now in the NFC.

The bad news though is that they do play in the NFC, where the "second tier" is so jumbled that only half or so of those teams will make the playoffs. The second tier at the time seems to be occupied by Washington, New York, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Seattle, and Arizona. With Philadelphia, Carolina, New Orleans, and Detroit not far behind.

The big problem here that I'm concerned about is that the Redskins are 3-0 against teams that they're better than, but they're 0-2 against teams in that second tier. That's not going to cut it. Because ten weeks from now, those Packers and Giants games that we could have won are going to be huge regrets when those two teams make the playoffs and the Redskins don't.

That brings us to a week 7 game that already looks like a "must win" to keep pace with the rest of the second tier teams. The Redskins should beat the Cardinals, and they need to get back to at least .500 against the second tier teams over the year in order to get into the playoffs. That means they will need to beat Philadelphia at home, Chicago at home, and at least 2 of the road games at Tampa, at New York, and at Minnesota.

In the mean time, the Patriots are apparently already as good as the 1985 Bears, and they've only played 6 games!

NFL Week 5

So how are my predictions doing so far? Let's review a few of them.

1. The Saints will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Hmm. Well I don't feel too bad about this one because EVERYONE had the Saints in the Super Bowl. But I'm not giving up yet. I still think the Saints have a decent chance at winning their division because it's so wide open. The Bucs are in the lead now, but it's hard to win without your starting running back and left tackle. Actually, New Orleans coming off their bye week at home vs. the Panthers might be the lock of the week.

2. The Patriots will struggle in their first 5 or so games. This was based on the premise that Tom Brady would have trouble adjusting to having so many stars like Randy Moss in his offense. Meanwhile, in real life, those two players would be the leading MVP vote-getters right now.

3. The Chargers will win their first 13 games. At least I didn't have them winning the Super Bowl like about 50% of the population. Is it possible that Norv Turner could be the worst coach in the history of the NFL? How do you take a team that's the consensus championship favorite and start out 1-3? That's embarrassing, and I have a feeling that the players don't like him much either.

As for the Redskins, I'm a little bit scurred of the Lions this weekend. Isn't the whole point of the bye week that we're supposed to get our guys healthy? A week and a half ago, everyone was saying that our bye week is coming at a good time. Well Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Sean Taylor are all still injured and questionable for Sunday. I hate to say it, but I'm guessing that the Redskins mismanaged the bye week, just like they mismanage most of their real games. Anyway, I'm scared of the Lions because of their passing game. The Skins have been good this year at stopping the run, but I don't see the Lions running the ball more than 20 times.

How about a quick baseball prediction? I've got the Yankees over the Diamondbacks in the World Series. I see the Yankees getting on a hot streak and no one will be able to stop them. The National League is wide open, so I'm going to follow my theory that worked in the NFL playoffs last year and pick the teams that no one else is picking. The D'Backs have the best record in the NL, but no one is picking them, except for me.

Dunder Mifflin Infinity

I dunno how this thing is going to work but it looks fun. All I know is that you get to earn SchruteBucks!

Anyway, I started my own Dunder Mifflin Infinity branch and we need 15 employees to sign up ASAP in order to have our own branch. So spread the word to anyone you know who likes the Office to join this branch. Here's what you have to do:

Go to http://www.dundermifflininfinity.com/

Register as a new member

When you get to the employee application screen, select that you want to apply as a regular employee

Select City: WV- Teays Valley

And then on the right, enter Branch Hiring code: 9e09j60kes

Thanks, and I hope to be working with you shortly :)

Don't tase me bro!

The original

And the remix

A great day to be a sports fan in DC

Wins for each of the two football teams in DC yesterday.

DC United were impressive in a 4-2 victory. I loved Jaime Moreno's goal (110th of his career), how he held the ball about six feet from the goal line and just waited for Reis to dive to the near post and then just chipped it to the other side. Brian Carroll's assist on Emilio's second goal should be nominated for assist of the year, if there was such a thing.

There was a point yesterday when I was trying to watch three different sports at a time. The Bears and Chargers were stuck in a pretty boring defensive battle on Fox. Meanwhile, Roger Federer was on CBS dominating his opponent to win a fourth straight US Open. Is there really any question at this point that Federer is the best tennis player of all time? I have no doubt that he could have beat Sampras or Connors in their prime. And then on ESPN we had the US soccer team valiantly losing to Brazil in a pretty good match. I thought the defense stood out for the USMNT, at least in the first half. Michael Bradley appeared to be pretty successful in his role of disrupting Ronaldinho, Carlos Bocanegra scored his second career goal against Brazil, and it was great to see Steve Cherundolo back. That right back position will be inherited by Spector or Simek sometime in the future, but it solidly belongs to Cherundolo when he's healthy.

But the biggest victory that everyone's talking about today is the Redskins overtime win at home against Miami. The team better be careful or else some fans are going to start to get real excited soon! How about Rocky McIntosh and LFB combining for 19 tackles yesterday to hold the Dolphins to only 66 yards rushing (4th fewest in the league). And the Ladell Betts/Clinton Portis combo rushing for over 150 yards (3rd best in the league) on 34 carries, split right down the middle between the two of them. A lot of people today are complaining that Portis should be getting more than half of the carries because he has more "explosiveness" and "home run" potential, but I'm fine with the split, at least for now. This split will keep them both fresh, and I think by around week 4 or so, Portis will be getting the majority of carries again. Jon Jansen's injury is huge cause for concern, but Stephon Heyer did fine yesterday filling in, and probably deserves to start next week. Although I couldn't help but notice that all our big running plays seemed to come on the left side. Our pass defense is still suspect, but we'll see how they hold up next week in Philadelphia. And is it just me, or is Jason Campbell actually more accurate on deep passes than short ones?

Redskins 2007 predictions

I've been putting it off for a while, but here's a quick analysis of how I think the Redskins did in the offseason.  I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would say that the Redskins had a BAD offseason.  In fact, you could say they had a good offseason just because they strayed from their usual habits of signing new high-priced free agents, trading draft picks, and letting go of key guys with expiring contracts.  They have a few key additions in London Fletcher-Baker, LaRon Landry, Fred Smoot, and Pete Kendall.  And they have a few key losses in Derrick Dockery, Renaldo Wynn, Lemar Marshall, and Joe Sala'avea.  Those mostly look like upgrades, except the one position where we struggled the most last year: defensive line (this will be a recurring theme).

So let's take a look at how each unit has fared in the offseason.  This is my opinion of how we did last year (based mainly on yards/game rankings) and how I think we're going to do this year.

Offensive passing game.  Last year: D.  This year: D.
There really haven't been any personnel changes to the passing game.  Jason Campbell will have a full year instead of sharing it with Brunell, so that is an improvement in itself.  Our top receivers are all healthy.  I'm hopeful because the reports out of training camp say that Campbell looks like he has a much better understanding of the offense, and he should continue to develop chemistry with his receivers.  But the aging offensive line has really struggled in the preseason, and that's a major cause for concern.

Offensive running game.  Last year: A.  This year: C.
I was shocked to see that the Redskins were actually the #4 rushing team in the league last year.  A lot of that had to do with Ladell Betts, who played out of his mind last year filling in for Portis, but I don't think we can count on that happening again.  The offensive line really stepped up late in the year, and I hope that carries over, but with the loss of Dockery and the apparent frailty of both of our supposedly Pro-Bowl-quality tackles, I don't think we're going to do any better running the ball this year, but hopefully we can stay in or near the top 10.

Defensive passing game.  Last year: D.  This year: C.
The biggest problem for the team throughout last year was the total lack of a pass rush.  Well the Redskins have done nothing to improve the defensive line in the offseason, but I still believe we will improve in that regard this year because I think the team will be blitzing more.  And that's because our coverage will be better with the addition of LaRon Landry, and also some added depth with Fred Smoot, David Macklin, and a healthy Pierson Prioleau.  Having some consistent coverage will allow the team to send more than just the front four on blitz packages.

Defensive running game.  Last year: E.  This year: C.
The biggest improvement this year should be in our ability to stop the run.  The ongoing joke last year was that all any team had to do to beat the Redskins was run left.  Well the middle and weak-side linebacker regime of Lemar Marshall and Warrick Holdman has been replaced by LFB and Rocky McIntosh.  That should be considered a huge upgrade.  LFB remains one of the top middle linebackers in the league, and brings strong leadership and guidance to a unit that ranked #27 last year.  Of course the d-line won't be any better talent-wise, but hopefully LFB can help get the guys in the right spots to make plays.

Special teams.  Last year: C.  This year: C.
Last year the Redskins were adequate on special teams.  They had one touchdown each from the kickoff and punt return teams.  And probably the biggest and most memorable play of the whole year came on Sean Taylor's blocked punt and return against the Cowboys.  At least we've got a fairly consistent kicker (instead of a question mark) going into this year.

So it looks like I've got the Redskins as a C in almost every category.  Hopefully the defense will be a bit above average this year, but I have a hard time believing that our offense will be in the top half in the league.  They say that football games are won and lost on the front line.  Well, defensive line and offensive line are probably going to be our two biggest weaknesses this year.  That's a bad sign.

So where does that leave us?  I've already officially entered my prediction at 6-10, but I've got my fingers crossed that we'll get back to 8-8.